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Our reporter Tan Zhijuan reports from Beijing.

The announcement by the Federal Reserve that it would suspend interest rate hikes in June triggered market concern. A few days ago, the statement of the Federal Reserve’s FOMC monetary policy meeting in June showed that the members unanimously agreed to keep the interest rate unchanged (5.00% ~ 5.25%), which was the tenth consecutive suspension of interest rate hikes since March 2022.

In this regard, industry experts believe that the Fed’s decision to suspend interest rate hikes in June may be due to an unexpected decline in inflation data; At the same time, for the sake of risk management, the Fed hopes to gain more time to assess the risks to the real economy caused by banking pressure and credit tightening.

On June 13th, the data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the CPI of the United States increased by 4% year-on-year in May, slightly lower than the market expectation of 4.1%, and the previous value was 4.9%. This is the 11-month continuous decline after the year-on-year increase of the CPI of the United States reached a peak of 9.1% in June 2022.

Explaining the reasons for the suspension of interest rate hikes, the Federal Reserve said: "Keeping the target range unchanged at this meeting will allow FOMC to assess more information and its impact on monetary policy."

However, there are signs that the Fed’s interest rate hike cycle is not over yet. The new FOMC forecast increases the possibility of raising interest rates twice in the next few interest rate meetings, raising interest rates by 25 basis points each time. The possibility of raising interest rates again at the next FOMC meeting in July has increased.

At the same time, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell still maintained a hawkish attitude in the process of answering reporters’ questions, saying that the interest rate hike cycle has not yet ended, and the current inflation still does not support interest rate cuts, and further pointed out the possibility of raising interest rates twice during the year. In addition, the new bitmap shows that the federal funds rate will reach 5.6% by the end of 2023, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous one, suggesting that interest rates may be raised twice this year.

So, will the Fed continue to raise interest rates in July?

Some institutional sources said that looking ahead, it is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in July. However, by September, it is expected that the easing of inflationary pressure will keep the Fed on the sidelines for the rest of this year.

Some industry experts believe that the Fed is unlikely to raise interest rates by another 50 basis points this year.

David Kohl, chief economist of Swiss Baosheng, believes that as inflation continues to decline, there is no need and no expectation for further interest rate hikes.

David Kohl also analyzed that as inflation in the United States is on a sustainable downward track, it is expected that there will be no and no need to raise interest rates further this year. In view of the long-term lag in the impact of monetary policy on the economy, raising interest rates again this year will have little effect on improving the inflation results in 2023.

Zhao Yaoting, global market strategist in Jing Shun Asia-Pacific region (excluding Japan), also told reporters that there is no need for the Fed to raise interest rates again. The data is weakening, which is reflected in the ISM service index. The producer price index (PPI) of the United States is currently negative year-on-year, and the consumer price index (CPI) of the United States may fall below 4% year-on-year in June.

Zhao Yaoting also pointed out: "Although the inflation rate is still higher than the Fed’s target range of 2%, the US core consumer price index (excluding housing) has dropped below 4% year-on-year."

Zhao Yaoting also said that if the Fed tightens monetary policy twice this year, it will really face the risk of excessive tightening, which will lead to a serious recession.

Xie Yunliang, an analyst at Cinda Securities, also said in the latest research report that the signal significance of the Fed’s hawkish guidance may be greater than the actual significance.

In Xie Yunliang’s view, first of all, the current interest rate is close enough to the restrictive level. In May, the real interest rate in the United States was 1.06%, which was higher than the expected annual real GDP growth rate of 1%, which could stabilize economic growth and push down inflation.

Second, the Fed’s interest rate decision is becoming more cautious. By suspending interest rate hikes, the Fed can evaluate more information as a basis for decision-making, and at the same time declare to the market that it "reserves the option of raising interest rates". Then, if the future data is in line with expectations, there may be the possibility that the Fed will no longer raise interest rates.

Finally, the probability of an obvious rebound in the inflation rate in the second half of the year is low, the core commodity items are expected to remain low with excess savings consumption, and the core services and residential items are expected to continue to decline.

Therefore, in Xie Yunliang’s view, based on the decision-making mechanism of the Fed’s "data dependence", it is relatively unlikely to raise interest rates by another 50 basis points during the year.

In this regard, Powell said that there is still a "long way to go" to achieve the 2% inflation target, and the core inflation has not made much progress; It may be appropriate to continue raising interest rates at a more moderate rate; In addition, it has not yet been decided whether to raise interest rates in July, and a decision will be made according to the situation.

In terms of investment, Zhao Yaoting suggested that before the Fed has a clearer statement, it is a more appropriate choice to maintain a tactical defensive allocation of US assets.

(Editor: Hao Cheng Proofreading: Yan Jingning)

The word "emotional value" has become popular in various forms on the network platform-

"The first cup of milk tea in autumn", "Einstein’s brain", "hydroponic plantain on the desk" and "stable capybara" … These trends seem confusing, but they are sought after by everyone.

Virtual emotional goods such as "Einstein’s brain" are selling well. Source: Network screenshot

People seem to expect emotional value more and more, and it is increasingly inseparable from emotional value: in love, it is an important option of mate selection criteria; At work, it is an important starting point for dealing with interpersonal relationships; In life, it is an important guide to make choices.

For a time, emotional value seems to be a panacea, as if people will be happy and comfortable as long as they have it; As long as you master it, you can be invincible in interpersonal communication and business competition.

What is the true meaning of emotional value? Excessive pursuit of emotional value can really make us happy?

one

Emotional value, a vocabulary derived from economics and marketing, is widely used in various behaviors and activities such as interpersonal communication, leisure and entertainment.

At present, it is understood as an ability to bring all good feelings and arouse positive emotions. While the emotional value is sought after, there are some phenomena of generalization and abuse.

For example, think that emotional value is above everything else.

More and more people attach importance to and admire emotional value-some people shout "rejecting internal friction" and step into society, some people use dopamine to improve their mood, and some people follow suit and buy "the first cup of milk tea in autumn" to explore the small fortune of life … At the moment when "emotion+"has become a universal formula, it seems that "everything can have emotional value".

It is human nature to rely on others and foreign objects to gain emotional experience, but over-exaggerating emotional value will easily make us reject negative emotions more and more: if a person can’t provide emotional value, he will be labeled as "unworthy of communication"; If a job makes people feel anxious and stressed, it becomes the object of workers’ spit and attack; If an industry can’t capture the emotional value, it will be regarded as missing the wind … The emotional value in all fields is like a sugar-coated cannonball, which makes people intoxicated, sometimes ignoring rationality, logic and objective facts themselves.

"Banning Banana Green" as "Electronic Ibuprofen" for Office Workers Source: Network

For example, the assembly line "cultivates" emotional value.

At present, training courses with emotional value as the core emerge in an endless stream: "How to provide emotional value" and "King-type emotional value trading guide" have captured some people’s curiosity; There are also some courses called "communication training camp", which claim to be able to quickly master the world in a short time.

Providing emotional value is an ability, but not everyone has it. These institutions sell their "panacea" by packaging and marketing emotional value, creating an illusion that emotional value is a panacea for communication and coordination from the workplace to love; From epistemology to methodology, you can become a trader of emotional value with a few experiences and skills.

All kinds of emotional value training emerge in an endless stream. Source: Network

For example, calculate "flow" and "small account" for emotions.

From the sought-after concerts to the popularity of virtual emotional goods such as "Einstein’s brain", from the short dramas that burst into flames to the hot "Wang Po matchmaking" … We can all find the figure of emotional value in countless "big flows" of communication.

However, in order to chase traffic, some worthless emotional values spread on the Internet. For example, hot events such as "Qin Lang lost winter vacation homework in Paris" and "Little Girl" used public emotions to bring rhythm and flow, which occupied public resources and hurt public feelings. For another example, in the creation of micro-short plays, routines such as "overbearing president falls in love with me" and "hiding the rich man’s reverse appearance" are common, which tend to pay attention to emotional value and ignore "exaggeration" and "absurdity".

There are also some marketing activities that use emotions to increase sales with the mentality of "cutting leeks", but they don’t really see and understand consumers’ feelings.

Xu. For example, copy and paste the street sign "I miss you but the wind is still blowing in XX", and the online celebrity restaurant which provides social punching but tastes terrible.

two

Surrounded by emotional value, we can’t help thinking: Why are people so obsessed with emotional value? What effect will such infatuation bring?

People are emotional animals, and the pursuit of positive emotional experience is an innate instinct of people.

From a biological point of view, positive emotions are related to the reward system of the brain. When we experience positive emotions, the brain releases neurotransmitters such as dopamine, endorphins and serotonin. These chemicals will make us feel happy and satisfied, thus motivating us to pursue behaviors that bring positive emotions.

Judging from people’s needs, with the development of the times and social progress, people yearn for such energetic emotions as acceptance, happiness, satisfaction and intimacy. In today’s fast-paced work and life, our emotions are inevitably ups and downs. When we are under great pressure and depressed, we always hope to recharge our minds and heal our spirits through some pleasant emotional experiences.

Pursuing positive emotional experience is human instinct. Source: Xinhua News Agency

Excessive infatuation may lead to "drug resistance" or "withdrawal reaction".

Excessive pursuit of emotional value will produce a reaction similar to "drug resistance", which will reduce the pleasure of doing the same thing. In order to maintain and enhance the pleasure, we must constantly increase the "dose".

Once the emotional value is lacking, there may be a "withdrawal reaction". For example, some activities or relationships will produce positive emotional experience or social support for individuals, but when this experience or support suddenly terminates, people will feel a certain degree of emotional emptiness and feel depressed.

Fast-filling emotional experience makes our understanding of emotions simple and shallow.

Everyone’s emotional needs constitute the underlying logic of emotional value. A deep understanding of emotions is our unique and precious wealth as human beings. It brings us warm, warm, joyful, happy, loving, caring and other emotional experiences, which constitutes an important part of life and is the most precious part of our life. But when we excessively pursue immediate emotional satisfaction and stimulation, we often ignore that real emotions need time to brew and accumulate.

For example, when emotional value enters the field of love, we define good emotion as providing high emotional value. Couples quarreled on social platforms for everyone to judge, and the comment area was full of remarks such as "ta can’t give you emotional value, divide it". This kind of immediate and efficient positive emotion, which seems attractive, may lead to the emotional communication between people becoming too standardized and streamlined, thus losing its original depth and complexity.

three

Each of us pursues happiness in our emotions and suffers in them. People’s emotions need to be appeased, and their hearts need to be healed. This is not a moaning, but a real physiological need. When people pursue emotional value, what they really want may not be 100% happiness, comfort and calmness, but emotional freedom.

There is no difference between good and bad emotions, and every emotion should be seen and accepted.

Emotion is the instinct of human beings. As a psychological behavior, there is no distinction between good or bad and right or wrong. Every emotion represents a psychological need and has its positive significance.

Of course, people often think that certain emotions are "good", such as happiness and excitement, because they bring pleasure and satisfaction; And some emotions are "bad", such as sadness and anger, which make people feel pain and discomfort.

But in fact, these so-called "good" emotions and "bad" emotions are indispensable to a person’s heart, and together they constitute our rich emotional world. For example, sadness may be telling you that others need to understand; Fear may alert you to potential threats; Anger may be helping you express your boundaries …

A truly strong and brave person is not only happy and laughing, but also has the ability to live in peace with any kind of emotion.

The key to cure the "cold of the mind" lies in oneself.

Whether it is craving others to provide emotional value in communication or soothing the body and mind by buying emotional products, in the final analysis, this is only a means of self-regulation, not the fundamental solution to the problem. Just as a physical cold needs to rely on our own immune system to overcome the virus, so a "mental cold" needs to be faced and adjusted by ourselves.

Buying "transshipment koi fish" may bring strong psychological hints, but good luck in real life depends on hard work; The course of high EQ can make people learn a few words, but the truly efficient way of communication is more and more popular … These may work for a while, but the truly stable and positive mood depends on whether there is a stronger heart, a more calm attitude and a more positive choice.

"Emotional value" is becoming "emotional business". Source: Half-monthly talk

Be alert to the "emotional trap" in the Internet age.

At present, many self-media and commercial organizations take advantage of everyone’s demand for emotional value to extreme emotions and then commercialize them. From the perspective of communication, these practices have a clear chain: extreme cases are generalized, complicated cause and effect are one-sided, practical problems are enlarged, aiming at the emotional points of most people, making a big splash, selling products and harvesting traffic. From "concocting emotions" to "completing transactions", an industrial chain is interlocking, so you can’t hide it.

We should have the ability to think independently, and beware of being routine in the "emotional chain". The platform should establish a more perfect content review mechanism to find and clean up bad information in time.

Finally, I hope you can hold the emotional switch, learn to adjust and manage your emotions, and be more comfortable and confident in your life. ‍

Author: Zhang Zhimeng Chen Le

Source: 21st century business herald.

　　In 2024, the National People’s Congress will be held soon, and the long-awaited economic expectations and policies will be announced. According to the usual practice, the government work report submitted to the National People’s Congress for deliberation will set the tone and elaborate this year’s monetary policy.

　　The market expects that this year’s monetary policy will remain stable, and it is expected to continue the "flexible, moderate, accurate and effective" tone, and support key areas such as "five major articles" through structural monetary policy tools and stock loans. It is worth noting that social integration and M2 anchor the target or optimization, instead of anchoring the nominal GDP growth rate, they are adjusted to "match the expected target of economic growth and price level".

　　Social integration, M2 growth target or optimization

　　Generally speaking, M2 and the growth rate of social integration, GDP growth rate and deficit ratio are all written as important quantitative indicators in the government work report. According to the reporter, in 2009, M2 began to set quantitative numerical targets, in 2011, social welfare began to write government work reports, and in 2016, quantitative targets were set.

　　In 2018, the government work report adjusted the monetary policy to "keep the M2 of broad money and the scale of credit and social financing grow reasonably", and then adjusted it to "the growth rate of M2 and social financing basically matches the nominal economic growth rate" in the following years. In ranking, M2 comes first, while social integration comes last.

　　According to the interpretation of the central bank, in the high-speed growth stage in the past, the potential growth rate of China’s economy was relatively high, and the actual growth rate fluctuated around the potential growth rate. Therefore, it is feasible to set a numerical target of M2. However, as China turns to a high-quality development stage, the potential growth rate has a downward trend. If we continue to set the digital target of M2 according to the actual value in the past, it may lead to the deviation between money and credit and economic operation, forming an excessively loose situation, which is not conducive to stabilizing the macro leverage ratio.

　　The data shows that from 2016 to 2019, the average growth rates of social integration and M2 were 11.3% and 9.1%, respectively. The former was 1.9 percentage points higher than the nominal economic growth rate, while the latter was 0.3 percentage points lower than the nominal economic growth rate. The growth rates of social integration and M2 basically matched the nominal GDP growth rate. From 2020 to 2022, the average growth rate of social integration and M2 was 11.1% and 10.3%, which were 4 and 3.2 percentage points higher than the nominal economic growth rate respectively. By the end of 2023, the growth rates of social integration and M2 were 9.5% and 9.7%, which were 5.3 and 5.5 percentage points higher than the nominal economic growth rate respectively, mainly because of low prices, and the nominal economic growth rate was rarely lower than the actual growth rate. In this context, if we continue to emphasize that "the growth rate of M2 and social financing scale basically matches the nominal economic growth rate", then the growth rate of social financing and M2 needs to be lowered.

　　Last year, the Central Economic Work Conference proposed that the scale of social financing and money supply should match the expected targets of economic growth and price level, and there have been major changes from the previous fixed tone. This new tone means that monetary policy should support both the price recovery and the return of economic growth rate to potential growth rate, especially the price recovery.

　　The relevant person in charge of the Central Finance Office said that this expression has two new ideas. First, the scale index of social financing is ranked ahead of the money supply, because this index is more closely related to economic growth; The second is to change the former "nominal economic growth rate" into "expected target of economic growth and price level", which can better coordinate the target requirements of economic growth and price level, and emphasize that price level is an important regulatory goal of monetary policy.

　　After the adjustment of the Central Economic Work Conference, the market expects that the growth targets of social finance and M2 in this year’s government work report will be adjusted to "match the expected targets of economic growth and price level". Under the above requirements, the growth rate of social integration and M2 still needs to maintain a relatively high level.

　　According to the calculation of research institutions, the potential economic growth rate of China’s economy is about 5.5% during the Tenth Five-Year Plan period. According to a working paper published by the People’s Bank of China in 2021, the growth rate of China’s potential output was between 5% and 5.7% during the Tenth Five-Year Plan period, and the overall growth rate continued to be medium and high. In recent government work reports, the expected target of price level is mainly CPI, which is around 3% in recent years. According to the new anchoring method, the growth rate of social integration and M2 should be maintained at 8.5% or even slightly higher this year.

　　According to the data of the central bank, the scale and M2 of social financing at the end of January were 9.5% and 8.7% respectively, which matched the expected targets of economic growth and price level, but still significantly higher than the nominal economic growth rate. People close to the central bank also said that since the epidemic, monetary policy has intensified its countercyclical adjustment, financial data is generally ahead of economic data, and the growth rate of M2 reached a high of nearly 13% in February last year, which was significantly higher than the nominal GDP growth rate. As the economy continues to recover, the growth rate of M2 will decrease steadily, and the gap between economic and financial growth will gradually converge.

　　Monetary policy is flexible, moderate, accurate and effective.

　　China’s monetary policy has five main categories: loose, moderately loose, steady, moderately tight and tight. In 2009, due to the impact of the global financial crisis, a moderately loose monetary policy was implemented that year. Since 2010, China has been implementing a prudent monetary policy.

　　The government work report in 2023 proposed that a prudent monetary policy should be precise and powerful. Keep the growth rate of broad money supply and social financing scale basically matching the growth rate of nominal economy and support the development of real economy. Keep the RMB exchange rate basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level.

　　From the practical point of view, the Bank of China cut interest rates by 10BP and 10~15BP in June and August last year, respectively. At the end of 2023, the one-year MLF and seven-day reverse repo rates were 2.5% and 1.8%, respectively, which were 35BP and 20BP lower than those at the end of 2022. In terms of deposit reserve ratio, the central bank lowered the RRR twice in March and September last year. At the end of 2023, the weighted average deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions was 7.4%.

　　Based on the recent high-level meetings held by the central government, the market expects that the tone of monetary policy in this year’s government work report will remain stable, but it emphasizes flexibility, moderation, accuracy and effectiveness. The Central Economic Work Conference held at the end of last year proposed that a prudent monetary policy should be flexible, moderate, accurate and effective, and maintain a reasonable and sufficient liquidity.

　　Yi Jiao, chief economist of macro research of Huatai Securities, said that monetary policy may continue the requirements of "flexibility, moderation, accuracy and effectiveness". In the medium and long term, there is room for both short-term and long-term interest rates to fall, but the pace of interest rate reduction may refer to macroeconomic and asset price trends. With the further clearing of the real estate cycle, and the overseas interest rate reduction cycle will start, it is not ruled out that there is still room for downward adjustment of long-term and short-term interest rates this year.

　　Xie Yunliang, macro chief analyst of Cinda Securities, said that China’s current inflation level is low, and low inflation leads to high real interest rates, so there is room for monetary policy to relax. The tone of monetary policy is expected to continue to be "flexible, moderate, accurate and effective" and attach importance to the efficiency of supporting the real economy.

　　From the past, flexibility and moderation mainly refers to the flexible adjustment of monetary policy according to the economic and financial situation and the maintenance of reasonable and sufficient liquidity. On February 5 this year, the central bank lowered the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points, releasing long-term liquidity of 1 trillion. This RRR cut will help the macro-economy to further stabilize and rebound, ease the liquidity tension during the Spring Festival, and help stabilize the capital market.

　　Accurate and effective, mainly refers to financial support for key areas, and needs to have an effect. After 2020, a number of structural tools have been created one after another, including re-lending for scientific and technological innovation, re-lending for transportation and logistics, special re-lending for supporting clean and efficient use of coal, re-lending for inclusive pension, re-lending for technological innovation and so on. According to central bank data, there were 17 structural monetary policy tools by the end of 2023.

　　It is worth noting that the central bank disclosed that in December last year, the amount of supplementary mortgage loan (PSL) was 500 billion yuan, which provided medium-and long-term low-cost financial support for policy development banks to issue loans for "three major projects". In December last year, PSL increased by 350 billion yuan. Together with the new scale in January, the new scale of PSL in February reached 500 billion yuan. Under the requirement of "accuracy and effectiveness", many of the above-mentioned structural monetary policy tools may continue to be used or the quota may be increased this year, and even the possibility that the central bank will continue to create new tools is not ruled out.

　　"Structural tools are quantitative tools with the function of credit structure adjustment. They are positioned as a useful supplement to aggregate tools. When creating, continuing or withdrawing, we should not only consider the more prominent structural contradictions in economic operation, but also consider the willingness and ability of financial institutions to improve financial services in specific fields." Lu Lei, deputy governor of the central bank, said at the 2023-2024 China Economic Annual Conference held at the China Center for International Economic Exchanges last December.

　　Lu Lei also said that we take focusing on key points, being reasonable and moderate, making progress and retreating as structural tools. As a result, we should effectively cover important and weak areas in the national strategy and national economic development, which not only encourages financial institutions to expand credit supply in related areas, but also promotes the transformation and upgrading of the economic structure in the medium and long term.

　　Optimize the credit structure

　　The means to achieve accurate delivery of monetary finance include not only structural monetary policy tools, but also the revitalization of existing loans to increase financial support for key areas such as five major articles. The central financial work conference held at the end of October last year pointed out that the inefficient financial resources should be revitalized to improve the efficiency of capital use. Do five major articles on technology and finance, Green Finance, inclusive finance, Pension Finance and Digital Finance.

　　The Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Implementation Report for the Fourth Quarter of 2023 explains that not only incremental credit can support the real economy, but also revitalizing inefficient stock loans will contribute to economic growth. At present, the stock of credit funds is much larger than the annual increment, and the enterprise assets and derived monetary funds formed by stock loans continue to play a role in the economic cycle. Revitalizing the inefficient financial resources and improving the efficiency of the use of funds will not be reflected in the increase in loans, but it will also inject new impetus into the high-quality economic development.

　　"The stock of money and credit in China is already very large, and the circulation of stock funds also plays a role in economic growth. If the idle and inefficient stock funds are brought into full play, even if new loans are added and the money growth rate is slower, it can strongly support the real economy." The aforementioned people close to the central bank said.

　　According to the statement of the central bank, revitalizing existing loans requires an increase or decrease in the credit structure, in which the proportion of real estate loans and financing platform loans will decline, while loans for scientific and technological innovation, manufacturing, green development and universal benefits will tend to increase. Pan Gongsheng, governor of the central bank, said at the press conference of the State Council Office on January 24th that the People’s Bank of China will set up a credit market department to focus on five major articles.

　　Lu Lei said that the financial sector is focusing on five major articles, namely, technology and finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance and digital finance, and the credit of real estate and local financing platforms that had been put in before may decline. At the same time, the increment and proportion of loans in key areas such as scientific and technological innovation, manufacturing, green development, and universal benefits are all rising significantly. At the same time, the proportion of direct financing will also increase in the future, which will have a benign substitution effect on loans, and the quality and efficiency of credit services to the real economy are bound to be significantly improved.

　　Yi Jiao said that considering that monetary policy is based on stability and "structural adjustment", the central bank may further increase the support of structural credit policies for investment, promote the flow of funds to entities and provide greater preferential interest rate support for key support areas (such as the five major articles emphasized by the Central Financial Work Conference).

　　Xie Yunliang believes that the "five major articles" may become an important direction of monetary policy. It is expected that more structural monetary policy tools will be introduced in the future to improve financial support for key areas and improve financing efficiency and quality.