Boost foreign trade expectations with a long-term view

　　According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs recently, the import and export of goods in China increased by 4.8% year-on-year in the first quarter of this year, and the export increased by 8.4%, reversing the slight decline in foreign trade from January to February, and the foreign trade showed accelerated growth on a monthly basis. The export growth data is even brighter. In March, exports increased by 23.4% year-on-year and 48.4% quarter-on-quarter, which was significantly higher than the export level from January to February. These data show that the advantages of China’s foreign trade development have emerged, showing strong resilience and a smooth start.

　　At present, due to the persistent geopolitical conflicts, the tightening of monetary policies in major countries, high inflation and the uncertainty of global financial markets, the trade of all countries in the world is tightening, and the foreign trade competition is becoming increasingly fierce. China’s high labor productivity, constantly improving R&D level, strong industrial supporting capacity, large-scale market space, strong policy guarantee and continuous release of institutional innovation dividends constitute the comprehensive advantages of foreign trade toughness and stability, which reflects strong foreign trade competitiveness. To realize the strategy of strengthening the country by trade, we must take stabilizing confidence and boosting expectations as the basic foothold, and promote foreign trade subjects to have firm confidence in facing difficulties and turn it into positive and effective action consciousness, so as to better cope with various risk challenges and promote the leap from quantitative change to qualitative change in foreign trade.

　　Expectation refers to a kind of psychological activity, which is a future psychological judgment formed on the basis of understanding the reality. In economics, expectation is the judgment of different subjects in the economy, such as government, enterprises and people, on the economic development trend, and accordingly they take corresponding actions. Generally speaking, with sufficient information, economic subjects can better understand the long-term factors affecting economic development, make correct judgments and take rational actions. However, under the condition of asymmetric information, economic subjects may only pay attention to the current situation and be influenced by short-term factors, forming irrational expectations for the future, making wrong judgments and behaviors, and affecting long-term economic development. At present, China’s foreign trade shows a stable and positive trend in the complex external environment, but there are also short-term fluctuations and difficulties. If foreign trade expectations weaken and irrational expectations appear, it will not be conducive to the stability and long-term sustainable development of foreign trade. Therefore, we must focus on the long-term, boost the good expectations of foreign trade development, guide foreign trade-related subjects to correctly understand the fundamentals of China’s foreign trade development, rationally judge the comprehensive advantages and long-term foundation of foreign trade development, and take scientific and reasonable actions.

　　To boost foreign trade expectations, we must strengthen our faith. Eliminate the interference of short-term factors and bad news in foreign trade, emphasize the long-term belief in foreign trade development, and make long-term plans. It is not the short-term performance of some indicators that will boost the good expectations of foreign trade, and it is even more impossible to simply adopt a short-term single policy based on the ups and downs of some indicators. Instead, we should focus on the long-term development of trade, continuously adjust and improve policies, make a good combination of foreign trade policies, and put forward scientific and clear path plans for long-standing problems in foreign trade. Only in this way can foreign trade subjects comprehensively and rationally grasp the current situation and future of foreign trade, strengthen their beliefs and continue to exert their strength. A few days ago, the the State Council executive meeting put forward the idea of "continuously enriching, adjusting and perfecting relevant policies, and implementing a combination of policies to stabilize foreign trade", which brought good expectations for foreign trade development from a policy perspective.

　　To boost foreign trade expectations, it is necessary to effectively implement and coordinate various policies and measures. According to the current situation of foreign trade development, in view of various deep-seated problems and constraints in foreign trade development, we should earnestly implement various policies to stabilize foreign trade and strengthen foreign trade, pay attention to coordinating and connecting all policies and measures, promote the balanced linkage among long-term foreign trade goals, key tasks, macro policies and reform measures, avoid policy conflicts and overlapping of executive agencies, strengthen policy synergy and improve good expectations for the effectiveness of foreign trade policy implementation.

　　To boost foreign trade expectations, we need to strengthen publicity and communication to reduce information asymmetry. Through various channels, strengthen publicity and communication with foreign trade subjects, and strengthen foreign trade subjects’ cognition of various support policies and comprehensive advantages of foreign trade; Through the scientific interpretation of the strategy of strengthening the country by trade, we will increase the publicity of scientific planning and effective programs for foreign trade development, and enhance the rational expectations of foreign trade subjects for China’s high-level opening up. Respond to the demands and concerns of foreign trade enterprises in a timely manner, strengthen information symmetry, break down information barriers, and actively guide the healthy development of foreign trade subjects’ psychological expectations.

　　It is also necessary to deepen the reform of foreign trade system to boost foreign trade expectations. With the goal of building a new open economic system at a higher level, we should continue to create a first-class foreign trade business environment, take the construction of a free trade pilot zone and a free trade port as an opportunity, deepen institutional reform in key areas of foreign trade, fully implement reform measures, promote foreign trade liberalization and facilitation, effectively transform government functions, build a service-oriented government, and create an open, transparent, fair competition, open and innovative foreign trade environment. At the same time, it will promote foreign trade subjects to form a positive understanding of future development space and opportunities, boost development expectations and activate foreign trade momentum. (This article Source: Economic Daily Author: Lan Qingxin)