After the attempted ＂rebellion＂, Wagner still maintained a military presence after the ultimatum period expired？

　　It has been more than half a month since the "rebellion" of Wagner, a Russian private military group, and the social security and military order in Russia have already returned to normal.

　　After Wagner’s "mutiny" came to an abrupt end, Russian President Vladimir Putin pronounced Wagner’s "death penalty" in a national televised speech on June 26th, saying that Wagner would no longer be allowed to continue to maintain a military presence within the jurisdiction of Russia, and only Wagner soldiers would be allowed to join the Russian regular army, disarm and return to the fields, or go to Belarus. On the same day, Prigozhin, head of Wagner, also announced that "Wagner will eventually be dissolved" before July.

　　However, Wagner’s movements since then have always been foggy, and contradictory news has been released constantly, which makes people unable to understand Wagner’s real fate. What is certain is that Wagner has remained active so far. A few days ago, Putin even proposed that Wagner be led by a military figure codenamed "White Hair" and "restore the original state".

　　So, what is Wagner’s current situation? Will it continue to maintain a military presence? Is it even possible to re-participate in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict?

　　What is Wagner’s current situation?

　　Wagner’s recent trend is very contradictory. After being sentenced to death in late June, Wagner recently turned over weapons to the Russian Ministry of Defense, while still recruiting new soldiers.

　　According to a report by the Russian Tass news agency on July 12th, the Russian Defense Ministry issued a statement on the 11th, saying that the Russian army is about to complete the work of receiving Wagner Group’s weapons and equipment. According to the data disclosed by the Russian military, Wagner handed over more than 2,000 rockets, air defense systems, armored vehicles and other heavy weapons and equipment and more than 2,500 tons of various ammunition. This statement means that Wagner has lost his fighting capacity, and Prigozhin has at least fulfilled the agreement he reached with the Russian Defense Ministry in June.

　　However, Wagner is unlikely to disappear in the short term. On the contrary, after entering July, Wagner still openly recruits in Russia. According to the British "Financial Times" reported on July 5, on July 4, Wagner’s recruiter made it clear that the recruitment plan would not change because of the failure of the "rebellion", and the newly recruited soldiers still signed contracts with Wagner Group and stayed in Krasnodar Krai, Russia for training. This obviously violates the ultimatum of the Russian Ministry of National Defense that Wagner soldiers must sign contracts with the Ministry of National Defense before July 1. The Financial Times analyzed that the move of recruiting new soldiers proved that Wagner will still exist for a long time and continue to participate in Russian military affairs in some form.

　　The Russian online media "остооно, Media" also quoted the famous Russian host Ksenia Sobchak (ксениясоо) on July 2nd. Sobchak said that Wagner is recruiting up to six arms, including signalmen, gunners and engineers.

　　In addition, Wagner posted on the social platform Telegram on July 15 to continue recruiting soldiers: "All positions in Krasnodar Krai are still empty." Wagner also promised to pay a monthly basic salary of 240,000 rubles (about 19,025 yuan), plus bonuses and insurance.

　　Did any soldiers leave?

　　In his speech on June 26, Putin promised to offer Wagner soldiers three choices: joining the Russian regular army, disarming and returning to the fields or going to Belarus. In short, Putin demanded that Wagner’s military presence in Russia be banned. Did Wagner soldiers really get the right to choose, and how many people chose to leave Wagner?

　　According to a report by the Russian Interfax news agency on July 2, Volodin, chairman of the Russian State Duma (lower house of parliament), posted a summary of the "attempted coup" on social platforms, claiming: "Many members of Wagner have agreed to sign contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense and join the regular army." At present, the Russian Ministry of Defense has not announced the information of Wagner’s personnel as it announced the collection of Wagner’s weapons, nor has it seen the news that Wagner’s grassroots organizations have announced their participation in the Russian regular army. According to the Russian newspaper Kommersant reported on July 13th, Putin admitted in an interview that Prigozhin still refused to accept the proposal of adapting Wagner soldiers.

　　There is no evidence that Wagner soldiers are being demobilized on a large scale. Wagner’s recruitment in Russia implies that Russian officials have not implemented the goal of banning Wagner’s military presence in Russia.

　　The exact news at present is that some Wagner members did go to Belarus. According to today’s Russian TV station (RT) reported on July 16th, Wagner members are training soldiers of the Belarusian army and conducting military exercises with the Belarusian army. The Ministry of Defence of Belarus also issued a statement on July 14th, stating that Wagner would assist Belarus in formulating a "road map" for military training.

　　Return to the battlefield?

　　According to a report by Russia’s Kommersant on July 13th, Putin revealed in an interview that he met 35 members of the Wagner organization a few days ago, which provided them with a brand-new way out: the Wagner organization was led by the person who served as the actual commander in the past 16 months and code-named "White Hair". Putin said that under this model, "nothing will change" means that Wagner will resume the organizational model before the "rebellion", that is, continue to exist in the form of private mercenaries. To this end, Putin hinted that Wagner might be granted legal status: "This is actually a legalization issue and should be handled by the State Duma and the government."

　　Reuters published an article on July 14th, saying that the military figure named "White Hair" who was appointed to take over Wagner was probably Andre Troshev (андрейтрошев). Previously, the official documents of the French Ministry of Finance and the European Union used "white hair" to refer to Troshev. In its document issued in 2021, the European Union described Troshev as "the chief executive of Wagner Organization", which is different from Putin’s claim that "Wagner was actually ‘ White hair ’ Leadership ". It is reported that Troshev served as the commander of the Russian rapid reaction force all the year round. In a photo that flowed out in 2017, Troshev took a group photo with Putin and Prigozhin. Reuters pointed out that Troshev may be Wagner appointed by Putin, and he plays the role of a liaison between Wagner and Russian troops.

　　The softening of Russian official position paved the way for Wagner to maintain his military presence in Russia. Public opinion believes that Wagner is likely to rebuild his military presence in the future, and at least he will go to Africa or Syria to return to his old job and be employed by the Russian military to perform overseas military tasks. Some analysts even pointed out that Russia cannot afford to lose Wagner’s force, and Putin’s statement may have laid the groundwork for Wagner’s return to the front line of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.

　　The British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) pointed out in a recent article that Wagner had already proved that it was indispensable for the Russian army in the battle of Bachmut, which lasted for almost a whole year. In the widely circulated video of Prigozhin swearing at Russian Defense Minister shoigu and Chief of General Staff gerasimov, Prigozhin accused the Russian regular army of fleeing without fighting in the suburbs of Bachmut, causing Wagner to be attacked on three sides in the frontal battlefield. Analysts believe that the Russian army is under great pressure and needs Wagner’s return.

　　Sean Bell, a military scholar, analyzed that it is unwise to "exile" Wagner to Belarus for a long time, let Wagner soldiers return to the fields or dilute them into the Russian regular army. "Russia can’t bear the consequences of losing the best and most experienced soldiers in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine", so Putin is willing to soften his posture and put forward that Wagner will "return to the original state" under the leadership of "white-haired" Troshev, which means that Wagner will return to the battlefield in Russia and Ukraine as a whole in the future.