Today, the high-level telephone conversation between China and Japan has a special background.
This article is transferred from [Bu Yi Dao];
Writing/Tiger Knife & Daodao elder sister
This summer, active officials from Japan’s Defense Ministry will come to Taiwan?
The latest news from the Japanese media is tantamount to dropping a bomb on the situation in the Taiwan Strait.
Once it comes true, it will be the first time that Japan has sent similar personnel to Taiwan after the American Association in Taiwan has an active army, navy and air force stationed there, and it will also be the second major change in Japanese personnel stationed in Taiwan after Japan sent a retired self-defense officer to Taiwan in 1996.
On the 7th, Yang Jiechi, member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee and director of the Office of the Central Foreign Affairs Working Committee, had a telephone conversation with Kazuo Akiba, director of Japanese national security.
Yang Jiechi said that at present, the old and new problems in Sino-Japanese relations are intertwined, and the difficulties and challenges cannot be ignored.
Recently, Japan has been making small moves on the situation in the Taiwan Strait. Some observers have asked: Japan, as a "supporting role" in the situation in the Taiwan Strait in the past, is gradually stepping onto the stage of "leading role"?
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According to Japanese media reports, the Japanese government plans to send a civilian active-duty staff member of the Ministry of Defense to the Taiwan Province Exchange Association Taipei Office, the window organ of Japan’s Taiwan affairs, instead of being a "military attache" of the Self-Defense Forces.
As we all know, since the normalization of diplomatic relations between China and Taiwan Province in 1972, Japan and have no diplomatic relations. Therefore, the Taipei Office of Japan-Taiwan Province Exchange Association has actually assumed the role of an "embassy", and the contacts between Japanese politicians and Democratic Progressive Party authorities should also be assisted by this "-Taiwan Exchange Association".
Over time, the status of "Japan-Taiwan Exchange Association" has rapidly improved and become an important channel for exchanges between Japan and Taiwan.
As the United States and Japan pay more attention to the situation in Taiwan Province, Japan’s attempt to add "diplomatic color" to the association becomes more and more undisguised.
On New Year’s Day, 2017, the renaming of "Japan-Taiwan Exchange Association" became a landmark event of "soft breakthrough" between Japan and Taiwan after Tsai Ing-Wen took office.At that time, the "Japan-Taiwan Exchange Association" was also called the "Exchange Association". This renaming blatantly juxtaposed Japan with Taiwan Province and made the attempt of "one China, one Taiwan" obvious.
The Japanese Defense Ministry originally stationed a retired military attache in the Japan-Taiwan Exchange Association. The Taiwan Strait crisis that broke out in 1996 was thought to be caused by insufficient military intelligence collection. Therefore, in 2003, the Taipei office of the Japan-Taiwan Exchange Association set up the post of "Director of Security Support", and the Ministry of Defense sent retired Major General Yoichi Nagano as the post.
However, because he is not an active official, the information obtained by the "director of security" must be returned to Japan through diplomatic channels, and it is impossible to directly contact the Ministry of Defense, and it must be conveyed through layers of contact.
After the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, there was a voice in Japan saying that the information communication channel between Japan and Taiwan should be strengthened. According to media analysis, sending officials from the Ministry of Defense in active service can fill this loophole in information exchange, and if military attaché s are sent there, I’m afraid it will cause strong dissatisfaction in Chinese mainland.
Therefore, they want to play an "edge ball": sending a civilian is not so eye-catching, but also has the practical effect of strengthening intelligence contact.
What’s more, it’s worth noting that this was first disclosed by the Japanese media, which has not been confirmed by Japanese officials, while Taiwan Province’s so-called "Ministry of Foreign Affairs" and "Ministry of National Defense" refused to directly respond to this matter.
Some scholars have analyzed that the announcement of news about Taiwan and Japan affairs should be based on the Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and some specific media often talk about it, but it didn’t come true in the end. It is hard to say that this situation is final, because the Ministry of Defense will have to go through many discussions before it can be determined. If Chinese mainland reacts strongly, it may still end in vain.
However, some analysts believe that Japan is used to using the sausage-cutting strategy to arch forward step by step. Now it may be time to send active civilian officials, and the next step may be to send active Taiwanese personnel or increase the number of people stationed in Wu Zhi.
And whether civilian or Wu Zhi, are essentially active officials. In recent years, Japan and Taiwan have been trying to gradually enhance the diplomatic color of the "Japan-Taiwan Exchange Association" through the strategy of "boiling frogs in warm water".
Judging from Japan’s recent actions towards Taiwan, Japan’s intervention in Taiwan affairs is not limited to this.
Recently, the Japanese Defense Ministry revealed that it also intends to set up an integrated commander to command the use of the army, navy and air self-defense forces and an integrated command to support the integrated commander to deal with China.
According to Japanese media, China’s maritime operations are "strengthening", and it is worried that "something will happen to Taiwan Province". At the same time, it is necessary to pay attention to new security areas such as space, network and electromagnetic waves, so it is necessary to set up a special post to improve the engine power.
In addition, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party of Japan has rarely added the expression of "the importance of peace and stability in the Taiwan Province Strait" in this year’s amendment of "the basic principles of economic and financial operation and reform".
This basic policy is to point out the important issues of the political power and the directional policy of the next year’s budget preparation, which spans departments and is led by the Prime Minister to promote reform. The importance is self-evident.
Moreover, in the face of the upcoming NATO summit at the end of June, sources revealed that Japanese Prime Minister kishida fumio is not only willing to consider attending, but will also coordinate his position with all parties on the Ukrainian war and the situation in the Taiwan Strait.
It seems that Japan, which once played a "supporting role" in Taiwan affairs, is now setting itself up with a "protagonist aura" step by step, releasing sounding balloons, observing China’s reaction and considering its next move.
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On Taiwan-related issues, the Japanese government is arching forward like a sausage, and politicians are also scrambling to create momentum.
Among them, former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe jumped the highest.
Last Sunday, Abe once again mentioned the topic of Taiwan Province in a forum, saying that he wanted to "tighten ties between Japan, the United States, Japan, Taiwan, Japan, India and Australia, and with like-minded countries" because "it is very important to create a condition for China to give up the use of force to reunify Taiwan Province".
He reiterated that "if something happens in Taiwan Province, it will happen in Japan" and declared that it is necessary for Japan to fundamentally strengthen its defense capability, and then focus on the US-Japan alliance to enhance its deterrence against Chinese mainland.
This paragraph of wording can be regarded as a staged summary of Abe’s frequent public statements on Taiwan-related issues over the past six months.
On Taiwan-related issues, Abe’s logic can be roughly divided into three steps.
Step 1: Linking Taiwan, China with Japanese security.
At the end of last year, Abe nicknamed at a meeting organized by a Taiwan Province think tank: "If something happens in Taiwan Province, it will happen in Japan." The reason is that "Taiwan Province is very close to Japan", which is only about 100 kilometers.
Therefore, "something happened in Taiwan Province" will be a Japanese "existential crisis".
This statement is very confusing to some Japanese people, but it can’t stand scrutiny. If this statement works, won’t all neighboring countries on the mainland be able to interfere in other countries’ internal affairs on this ground?
Step 2: Since it may constitute an "existential crisis", it is necessary for Japan to increase its defense expenditure and realize "re-militarization".
The most typical one is the "nuclear madness" that Abe once released.
Abe said that in view of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, Japan should explore issues related to the "nuclear sharing" of the United States. Look, his ambition to make Japan move in the direction of seeking nuclear weapons cannot be hidden.
Some French scholars have noticed that "Japan has gone through the stage of pure defense, and now what the outside world sees is an unconstrained military force."
This kind of "unconstrained" is exactly what Abe wants.
When he was prime minister, he made many amendments to Japan’s security-related policies and the Self-Defense Forces Law, such as allowing the exercise of collective self-defense rights under limited circumstances. This provides the possibility for the Japanese to give some support when something happens to Taiwan Province.
Abe has repeatedly called for amending Article 9 of the Constitution to make Japan a "normal country" with a "normal" army and a "normal" right to declare war.
This year marks the 75th anniversary of the promulgation of the Japanese Constitution. Some media predict that if the ruling party wins the Senate election in July, the Kishida regime is likely to accelerate the discussion on amending the constitution.
Step 3: Externally, continue to hold the US thigh tightly and consolidate the Japan-US alliance.
Right-wing politicians like Abe know very well that if they want to "stop the rise and revival of China", they can’t do it by themselves, and they must hold the United States.
Abe has mentioned several times that "what happens in Taiwan Province is what happens in Japan and what happens in the Japan-US alliance". He also contributed to the Los Angeles Times, publicly calling on the United States to abandon its "strategic ambiguity" policy on the Taiwan Province issue.
For Abe’s many similar provocative rhetoric about China, some of the Kishida regime denied it, while others just went away.
Abe, do you still have political influence?
The title of an article in The Economist magazine gives its answer: "Shinzo Abe still plays an important role in Japan."
The article quotes Harris, the author of Abe’s first English biography "Anti-traditionalists: Shinzo Abe and New Japan": "Kishida is not the topic setter in Japan, but Abe is."
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Xiang Haoyu, a distinguished researcher at the Asia-Pacific Institute of China Institute of International Studies, analyzed the "mending knife" and said,Japan’s recent negative and erroneous trends involving the Taiwan Strait can be roughly divided into three categories:
The first is to strengthen exchanges with Taiwan.The latest example is a report that officials from the Ministry of Defense will be sent to Taiwan Province for permanent residence. If this is true, Japan will make a breakthrough in its exchanges with Taiwan. According to the principles of the four political documents between China and Japan and Japan’s commitments, Japan’s exchanges with Taiwan cannot violate the one-China principle, and it can only maintain unofficial relations with Taiwan Province. If the current officials of the Ministry of Defense are really sent to Taiwan, this is actually breaking through the framework of Japan’s post-war relations with Taiwan;
The second is to boost the "China threat theory".Through the media and right-wing politicians headed by Abe, Japan played up the "China threat" by the Taiwan Province issue and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, in order to incite people’s sense of crisis, create a favorable public opinion environment for them to increase their defense budget and revise the peace constitution; Externally, it is to serve the "Indo-Pacific Strategy" and provide an excuse to join hands with the United States to contain and contain China.
For them, 30% are worried that a conflict in the Taiwan Strait will endanger Okinawa’s outlying islands, especially the Diaoyu Islands dispute. But the main consideration is to artificially create an "external crisis" by taking the Taiwan Province issue as a starting point, so as to get rid of the Japanese post-war shackles and promote the normalization of the country.
The third is to pull the United States to jointly put pressure on China.Japan’s purpose now is to bring the United States in. Japan has been saying that "something happens in Taiwan Province means something happens in Japan", but in fact, the second half of the sentence implies that "something happens in Japan equals something happens in the United States". Because the US-Japan alliance means that the United States has an obligation to assist Japan. Some people in Japan hope that the United States will clarify its Taiwan strategy as soon as possible, so that for Japan, with the United States in front of it, it will be more unscrupulous to promote the agenda of military loosening.
Fu Sentinel, an air force expert, analyzed the "one-knife supplement" and said that Japan’s sending active-duty officials to Taiwan this time was said to be intelligence gathering, but in fact, the authorities of the United States, Japan and Taiwan Province made corresponding military preparations.
He pointed out that the collection and sharing of intelligence information is actually a military action, and we should pay close attention to it. From the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, it can be seen that NATO countries say that they will not send troops to Ukraine, but it does not actually prevent them from sharing and implementing intelligence with Ukrainian troops. This seems to be nothing in peacetime, and once it is wartime, it will have an important impact on military operations.
Fu sentinel reminded,We must be highly vigilant and cut off such military ties if necessary. We have both soft and hard hands.Hard means, once necessary, we can destroy their land-based, sea-based, space-based and space-based related systems and equipment, and soft means, such as electromagnetic suppression and electromagnetic investigation. Now we have all these platforms, such as electronic reconnaissance plane, communication command machine and electronic jammer, and so on. We can strengthen the drills and preparations in this area next.
Xiang Haoyu believes that one of the most important reasons why Japan is so reckless on the Taiwan Province issue is that Japan-US relations are in the "honeymoon period". Japan is inseparable from the so-called "Indo-Pacific strategy" that the United States wants to promote to contain China.
Therefore, I also want to take this opportunity to exchange Japan’s more equal status in the US-Japan alliance and gain greater international influence by acting as a helper and "pawn" of the United States.
In the view of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is triggering a major adjustment of the international order after the Cold War. Now it is a golden window for Japan to get rid of the post-war shackles and realize the normalization of the country.
At present, Japan’s young children are aging, and its national strength is in a downward channel, but it still has outstanding economic and technological influence. If we don’t seize the present opportunity, we may never have another opportunity in the future. This actually reflects Japan’s particularly anxious mentality now.
Xiang Yuyu said,Japan’s current social ideological trend and political ecology have been extremely conservative to the right, and criticizing China, Russia and North Korea in this atmosphere has become a kind of "political correctness".
Although Kishida himself is a conservative, he has to cater to the domestic right-wing populist political atmosphere in the face of the pressure of the Senate election in July, and even made such inflammatory remarks as "Ukraine today, East Asia tomorrow". With the public opinion in Japan falling into a vicious circle of self-reinforcing cognition of "external threats", the polarization and populism of politics are becoming more and more serious, and the Taiwan Province issue has been listed as a national security issue that affects Japan’s "national luck". Politicians with rational attitudes are inevitably trapped in it, and there is almost no room for rational cognition and discussion in Japanese society.
On the 7th, Yang Jiechi, member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee and director of the Office of the Central Foreign Affairs Working Committee, had a telephone conversation with Kazuo Akiba, director of Japanese national security.
Yang Jiechi said that this year marks the 50th anniversary of the normalization of diplomatic relations between China and Japan, and the relationship between the two countries has reached an important historical node. At present, the old and new problems in Sino-Japanese relations are intertwined, and the difficulties and challenges cannot be ignored. The two sides should grasp the correct direction, adhere to win-win cooperation, focus on the long-term overall situation, enhance security and mutual trust, work together to bring a stable, healthy and strong Sino-Japanese relationship into the next 50 years, and jointly safeguard regional peace and prosperity.
In this case, I hope some Japanese politicians can listen.
The picture comes from the Internet.
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