Market change policies are frequent. In 2017, the property market or the overall cooling price stalemate.
Recently, Shanghai and Chongqing issued a new policy on the same day to continue to cool down the still restless property market. The reason is that the speculators in the property market still have a fire. According to industry insiders, it will be a high probability event that the real estate market in hot cities in China will continue to tighten in the future, and the property market may continue to cool down and house prices will fall. However, it should be noted that under the background of low cost of ownership, the property market is still a paradise for speculators, or it may be difficult to break the strange circle of "ten adjustments and nine rises" in the property market. Therefore, the long-term mechanism as the last link to stabilize the property market should be pushed to the stage as soon as possible.
Frequent market change policies
On January 7th, Chongqing Municipal Bureau of Land and Housing issued the Notice on Strengthening the Management of Pre-sale Scheme of Projects in the Main City, pointing out that the provisions on pre-sale price declaration, price review and price change filing will be strictly implemented. If the pricing is unreasonable and the pre-sale price is adjusted, it is necessary to provide the basis for price adjustment. If the reasons are insufficient and unreasonable, the change shall not be filed. In addition, it is strictly forbidden to collect fees such as deposits and reservations by subscription, reservation, etc. It is strictly forbidden to force buyers to accept the price of goods or services by binding tying or attaching conditions. It is strictly forbidden to fabricate or publish false information to drive up housing prices.
For those who fail to announce the price in accordance with the regulations, clearly mark the price or publicize the external sales with false advertisements, Chongqing said that it will keep a high pressure on the illegal activities of real estate enterprises. Violations will be included in real estate credit files, and relevant information will be notified to relevant departments such as land, taxation and finance, and their land purchase, financial credit and other activities will be restricted.
On the same day, the Shanghai Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-Rural Development announced that in view of the recent illegal sales of some commercial office projects and the sharp increase in complaints about unauthorized reconstruction, it will work with relevant departments to centrally clean up and verify commercial office projects and suspend online signing of such projects. According to statistics, 128 projects in Shanghai have been suspended.
Prior to this, on December 31, 2016, Xi ‘an issued the Notice of Xi ‘an Municipal People’s Government on Further Promoting the Sustained, Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market. Since January 1, 2017, Xi ‘an and non-local registered households (including husband and wife and minor children) can only purchase a new set of housing (including new housing and second-hand housing) within the six districts of this city.
At the end of December 2016, Shijiazhuang issued the "Notice on Further Strengthening the Supervision of the Business Behavior of Real Estate Intermediaries", requiring many administrative departments such as housing construction, industry and commerce to strengthen supervision and guidance and effectively regulate the business behavior of real estate intermediaries. On January 3 this year, Hainan notified 1,352 real estate agencies in the province that they had not filed. The Housing and Construction Department of Hainan Province asked the agencies and their branches that had not filed to file without delay, otherwise they would suspend their online contracting qualification for commercial housing sales according to regulations. "The main reason for the policy linkage is market changes." An industry insider said that although the regulation continues to be stricter, the policy effect is shrinking under the background that buyers’ expectations have not changed.
From last December, some signs of rebound in the property market appeared. According to the data released by Yiju Research Institute, the transaction data rebounded in December 2016 due to the impact of year-end performance catch-up. In December 2016, the monitored transaction area of new commercial housing in 30 typical cities was 22.99 million square meters, an increase of 15.6% from the previous month and a decrease of 2.8% from the same period last year. Since the end of December 2016, the transaction area of new commercial housing in Chongqing has obviously warmed up. In November, the weekly transaction area of newly-built commercial housing fluctuated from 550,000 to 760,000 square meters, but from December 19 to 25, the weekly transaction area quickly rose to 870,000 square meters, and in the following week including New Year’s Day holiday, the transaction area was as high as 1.29 million square meters, reaching the highest value of recent transactions. From December 26, 2016 to January 1, 2017, the volume of transactions in Chongqing even exceeded the whole month of February and July 2016.
Long-term mechanism is imminent
Recently, Xu Shaoshi, director of the National Development and Reform Commission, said at the press conference organized by the State Council Office to lead the new normal of economic development and deepen the supply-side reform that China’s economy will not experience a "collapse mode" decline and a "hard landing", house prices have also been effectively controlled, and a long-term mechanism is being formulated, including some laws and regulations and fiscal and financial policies.
“‘ Brake ’ You can’t step on it for too long, and it is not enough to rely on demand-side regulation. " Yu Liang, president of Vanke, has previously said that the key to the long-term healthy development of the real estate industry is to use the precious opportunity after stepping on the brakes to establish a long-term mechanism and increase effective supply. The key to real estate regulation is to cure the problem, that is, to establish an institutional framework, including land, investment and financing, housing and tax system.
It is worth noting that the main reason for the previous "ten adjustments and nine rises" in house prices is that it is difficult for short-term regulatory policies to form a benign policy cycle effect. National academy of economic strategy’s "China Housing Development Report (2015-2016)" pointed out that it is difficult for housing control policies to achieve the expected control objectives, mainly because they failed to take into account the lag of policies, resulting in the lack of stability and sustainability of control policies.
In addition, Ni Pengfei, director of the Urban and Competitiveness Research Center of China Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out that the negative regulation by local governments is also an important reason for the panic surge in housing prices. He said that at the end of 2015, the central government clearly stated that "third-and fourth-tier cities should de-stock, and first-and second-tier cities should curb speculation". However, in the process of local implementation, first-and second-tier cities did not implement this policy well, but the inventory was not large, which led to a sharp rise in housing prices. However, third-and fourth-tier cities that should de-stock failed to reduce supply but increased new investment due to financial considerations, especially in the first half of last year, the growth rate of investment in third-and fourth-tier cities was even higher than that in first-and second-tier cities.
Jia Kang, former director of the Institute of Fiscal Science of the Ministry of Finance, also pointed out that the real estate market in China is a "swinging" type. "Before, everyone was worried that there would be two worlds of ice and fire, and many third-and fourth-tier cities and some second-tier cities were under such great pressure of destocking. I didn’t expect it to get hot in just a few months, and the housing prices in first-tier cities and second-tier hotspot cities rose rapidly. As a result, local governments had to constantly introduce various measures to restrict purchases and loans. This kind of ‘ Swing ’ The performance of the model once again shows that the multi-round regulation we talked about in previous years is mainly to cure the symptoms, not to effectively cure the problem. "
"The long-term housing mechanism lacks a clear framework, route and timetable." Ni Pengfei said that the property tax and personal housing information system are progressing slowly, which affects the overall construction process and regulation effect of the long-term mechanism; In terms of the supply of affordable housing, the implementation details of the supply of affordable housing by monetizing resettlement and purchasing on behalf of the agent need to be improved.
Wu Huimin, senior director of dtz and director of comprehensive residential services in East China, believes that the government needs to reasonably guide market demand, comprehensively levy property tax and other good medicines, and establish a long-term mechanism, which is the key to stabilizing housing prices.
Ni Pengfei suggested that the long-term mechanism of real estate should establish a housing property right, management, exchange, consumption and distribution system of "multiple ownership", "existing home sales", "rental and sales at the same time", "filtering use" and "currency dynamics", so that new citizens can rent and buy affordable housing through market and government support. At the same time, we will establish a "paid and competitive" housing land system, a "multi-level, GSP" housing finance system, and a "holding tax-based" real estate fiscal and taxation system.
2017 real estate price or stalemate
"The capital factors supporting the rapid growth of commercial housing in 2016 should be gradually weakened, and the regulatory policies are difficult to relax in the short term. In this context, 2017 should be a year of stalemate in real estate prices." Zhu Xuru, secretary of Vanke’s board of directors, said.
Wang Tao, chief economist of UBS China, also believes that the adjustment of the real estate market in 2017 will be relatively mild. Due to the current low overall inventory in the market, the inventory in the third-and fourth-tier areas has also declined in the past year or two; Last year, the momentum of new construction and real estate investment was not strong, and the downside was limited; Although the policy is being tightened as a whole, it is not a drastic regulation, but because of the city’s governance. Compared with 2010 and 2011, the regulation policy is relatively mild.
"Moderate adjustment refers to real estate investment rather than real estate sales. The growth of new construction and investment in real estate may drop from 7%-8% last year to 2%-3% this year, and the adjustment range is not large. From 2013 to 2015, the adjustment of real estate investment was between 10% and 20%, which is relatively mild this year. " Wang Tao said.
In view of the future trend of real estate policy, Wang Tao believes that the decision-makers will still accelerate the reform of household registration system and the infrastructure construction between central cities and satellite cities, and expand the scope of central cities, but there will be no major austerity policies.
Li Zhiying, head of real estate industry research at UBS in China, also pointed out that real estate investment trusts (REITs) will be a major driving force for the real estate industry in the mainland in the next five years, which will help real estate enterprises to revitalize their funds, provide the market with investment tools with high transparency and certain returns, and be an important step in financial reform.
Liu Ning, secretary of the board of directors of China Merchants Shekou, also pointed out that it is expected that the market will cool down in 2017, the financing of the real estate industry will also be tightened, and high-priced land acquisition will not be sustainable. (Liang Qian)